UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZPRK8RqXL/

2 of the sharpest minds in MMA, Baremaras and of course myself have given our opinions on the Kopylov fight.

There is no debate. We are just telling you what is going to happen

And by that same token we are saving you money.

The problem is that some people just want to be poor.

@DevinM34 

Islam by sub at plus money right now is absurd. The only reason to not jump on that line would be bad juju or something lol

First of all, it seems to me that Poirier knew how to capitalize on the opportunities: I was one of those who wrote him off in the BSD match-up but he found the way to win and taking advantage of the Gaethje-Holloway and Oliveira-Tsarukyan situation at UFC 300 on He knew how to take pole position and make two camp straight for surely his last title shot. I think the #1 contender is Tsarukyan, but clearly making him fight 2 times in less than 8 weeks was the same stupid tactic that Adesanya wanted to do with Dricus after UFC 290 or what they did with Sterling to fight O'Malley in August later of the fight against Cejudo when he perfectly could have fought on the November card in New York as Co-Main, other of those things that make MMA look like boxing these days.

Personally, I found Islam's interview with DC very funny and curious when they talked about Dustin Poirier's skillset, especially in the area of grappling. The issue of Black Belts is usually complex, but Makhachev practically told the whole truth in a joking way and in broken English: today there are many guys in high-level MMA who supposedly are First Degree Black Belt in BJJ, but once on the ground they have zero response with their back flush on the canvas, that means zero rubber guard, zero sc****s, zero transitions to 50/50 positions or deep half guard, zero reversal with kimuras and leg locks attempts or even trying solidly an armbar, triangles chokes. This is because many coaches have left for the commercial side and that is why many fighters receive their belts after knocking out someone in a televised UFC event or fighters who do not have the technique or the ''mileage'' are promoted from belt: Woodley received his black belt after his victory against Darren Till, but Usman and Durinho showed that the only thing he could do on the ground was close guard to minimize punishment (and two bad guillotine attempts against Usman), Adesanya in Blue belt He showed better grappling skills against Gastelum than in his fights against Jan, Whittaker (second fight) or Poatan (first fight) when Galvao promoted him to Purple Belt. Pereira himself does not seem to me to have the level or even the training time (speaking of grappling) to be a Black Belt in BJJ. 

Of course, not all BJJ Black Belts are ADCC level, but a black belt is given by knowledge of the techniques and time practicing them. To reach the conclusion, I do not doubt that Dustin is a deserving Black Belt, but in grappling Makhachev will make him look amateur in that department.

If Dustin stand a chance it's with his boxing technique and the power of his hands. If He try the jumping guillotine, he gonna give a big positional advantage to Islam and probably getting finished if he make this early in any round.

* Edited at 05.21.2024, 3:09 AM ET *

Makhachev vs. Poirier
Islam Makhachev, SUB, R2
Islam is the best fighter in the world (soon best lightweight oat), there's no place he wouldn't feel safe in the octagon. His standup has gotten so impressive, hard not to praise it, I know very well DP posseses power and slick boxing. He can win this fight by a huge upset (crazy to think about but not the wildest thing I've seen) however picking DP is basically hoping for a punchers chance. He was completly whooped in that first round vs. BSD where he couldn't avoid putting himself in terrible situations on the ground and being taken down with ease. And tbf not the first time things like that happend to DP. Islam clears.

Strickland vs. Costa
Sean Strickland, DEC
Strickland? For 5 rounds? Against a guy who is only getting pushed because he's a personality? Way too easy of a prediction. Let's be real here, like or dislike Strickland, he's been on an absolute roll, KO'd Abus, outscored Imavov, a fight vs. Cannonier which could be scored Seans way, 49-46 against Izzy, and a very close fight vs. DDP. Costa on the other hand got another gift, that was fighting a higher ranked Whittaker, where if the headkick didn't land in the first, he would of lost all rounds, also lost to Vettori and couldn't knock out glass chin of Rockhold. I absolutely think Costa is super overrated and I can't be wrong saying this is basically a layup fight for Sean.

Almeida vs. Romanov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R2
Romanov isn't a bad fighter at all, I call him a failed prospect but he really is a talented dude. However he's severely outmatched here, Jailton should do whatever he wants. Almeida lost because he had a very poor iq momemt but that's nothing you can't work on.

Kopylov vs. Almeida
César Almeida, TKO, R2
Since I'm 100% unbiased in my predictions I have to side with Almeida (sadly). I can't pick Kopylov, Almeida is just way better kickboxer, Almeida can be taken down but Roman has pretty much never mixed in takedowns in his fighting style and I doubt it will happen here, unless it's a panic takedown. I expect a banger of a fight.

Dawson vs. Solecki
Grant Dawson, DEC
UFC saw what Bobby did to Dawson so they decided to give him a step down in competition, a no KO threat Solecki, who is practically just a grappler. But sadly for Solecki, even on the ground, Dawson is just better. This is a carefully crafted layup.

Gall vs. Hafez
Bassil Hafez, DEC
Surprised how many people pick Hafez by KO, he only has 1 knockout on his record, where he slept some regional guy by like a 50% power right hand lol.

Tumendemberel vs. Lima
André Lima, DEC
Goodluck for Bruce Buffer.

* Edited at 05.21.2024, 7:00 AM ET *

@Rah123 

congrats on not having the tomato next to your name anymore. The poor is having a hard time understanding the almighty genius Rah from all the way up here in the top 100 though, so you're going to have to speak up or make your way up the leaderboards before giving me advice

I went back and found the exact moment Ribiero had Kopylov hurt too for those of you saying "it literally never happened, you're just making **** up". Go watch the end of the first round from the 30 second mark on

I rewatched the Kopylov fight vs Ribero like 3 times. I believe you’re completely wrong. Nowhere in that fight it indicated that Kopylov was hurt. The only real moment I saw with ribero was when he landed couple big punches back to back, and pressed him with those punches against the cage. At which point, Kopylov escaped from very very quickly. You might of thought that, based on what announcers said. “Oh he’s hurt, oh he’s hurt” and that wasn’t the case. Those announcers are really funny at times. Blows my mind what DC says half the time during fights. 😆

@baremaras 

great point..

 just watched The Kopylov/Ribeiro fight I think it is more that Kopylov gets flustered easily while moving backward there was a moment at the 2-minute mark when Ribeiro ran at him swinging that looked very similar so i think its the case that Kopylov is just uncomfortable when pressured on the cage 

It's mma, even if you're a better fighter than your opponent you won't win every exchange, Kopylov isn't immune to being countered or heavly damaged, same as every fighter ever. Kopylov was literally clipped when Riberio was coming in (0:30 of the fight if your blind) it confuses to me how can't you see something so obvious? 😂 Kopy whooped Ribero after. But if we do talk about a specific part of the fight, turn ur biasses off, it's not hard, i'd say the dude's one of my favorite fighters but let's be real here.

Dont be the liquidity in this business.

It's kinda weird, Adriano Martins I had my eye on at the time thought he was developing great striking for a grappler and predicted him to win by decision. It's been a long road, can't believe how time flies. 

Michael Chandler at 38 years old has more chances of beating Islam than Poirier, this pairing is stupid, Poirier at 35 years old no longer has the strength to grip, with Oliveira he threw in the towel from the second round and practically gave up his back to be finished , keep your money away from Poirier

@jeffferson 

again. Watched that 3 times did not see what you saw whatsoever. Not for a second I thought he was clipped. And I believe a lot of you miss use the word clipped. Clipped means hurt, stunned, wobbled. Was he hit? Yes. Who doesn’t get hit.  That wasn’t the case. May the best man win next week. We will see what Almieda is made out of. 

* Edited at 05.21.2024, 10:59 AM ET *

First fight on this card might be the hardest to predict correctly. The majority of this card is extremley one sided. 

Anyone likes Dos Santos as a dog?

@pashaboyer 

I was really thinking about picking ZDS but don't like that he's pretty old now